BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN+ 9 DRAFTKINGS BREAKDOWN
This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight card at Canada. DraftKings has some strong competitions for us to win a great deal of money from this week. The most important GPP is a $15 buy and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $100k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier only contest for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first place price and that $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 entries that match. I will attempt to receive my 2nd chair this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers, so be careful chasing those overly hard. I’ll likely stick to the top GPP this week and throw a small number of entries at the $25k decoration, and then I will likely have a couple shots in the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs in addition to picking up H2Hs throughout the week to receive a good amount of drama into money games.
With that said, let’s get into a few plays I enjoy this week along with my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of the week — Macy Chiasson — $9,400
Macy Chiasson is undoubtedly the safest play in the board this week and she has 100+ point upside down. She’s a lock within my cash matches this week and that I actually don’t really see the way she loses. I believe a entry could be Moras’ best opportunity but she isn’t very capable of getting the battle to the ground, so that I see her getting dominated on the toes until the ref measures. She is by far my favourite play in the $9k selection and she’s a -750 on the betting line. I enjoy playing with it safer in money games and I think she’s a safe win this week.
GPP play of the week — Greg Hardy- $8,600
This is an easy one for me this week and he will be the chalk of the week. I will continue to be overweight on Merab though. His style is precisely what we need on DraftKings. He’s got a nonstop speed and he shoots takedowns frequently. He has 22 landed takedowns in his initial 3 UFC fights and that is his best route to victory in this matchup as well. Despite 2 losses on his album from those 3 fights, he still averages more DK points than Katona does with his 2-0 UFC record. This is not my GPP play of the week since I understand he is going to win, I just know IF he wins he will score highly, and he needs to easily reach value within an $8.6k price .
Underdog drama of this week — Donald’Cowboy’ Cerrone — $7,800
I have to select Cowboy as the dog of the week. His fights are always action packed along with the winner of the fight will definitely be on the first-place lineup. Especially if it is Cowboy. He almost always scores over 100 points in his wins and he has 5-rounds to work with here. I really don’t see a circumstance in which he wins and does not wind up about the $25k lineup. I’ll be overweight on Cowboy this week, but this really is an all-in struggle for me. If Cowboy is not in one of my lineups, then you will see Iaquinta there. I will be thicker on the Cowboy side though and I think he gets the job done by submission.
Fade of this week — Elias Theodorou ($8,000)
I would be very surprised to see Theodorou on the 1st place lineup this week. I’d be surprised to see him get even 10x his $8k cost and that’s why I will have zero lineups together with him this week. Not counting his struggle with Dan Kelly, his 4 wins earlier that scored 76, 69, 64, and 49. His style is just bad for DraftKings. He will need to knock Brunson out if he is going to score highly and he isn’t a power puncher. I believe you’re better off taking Elias from TKO on the betting line in +870. I really don’t see any reason to invest in this week at GPPs since he does not possess the ceiling we would like to win that big $25k. I believe he’s fine in money games because a 65-point win wouldn’t kill us there. However he’s an easy fade of this week for me this Saturday.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and also give my entire DraftKings analysis, as well as all of my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link as well. I am 71-45 for +233.79u (+$23,379) because May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)
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