BIG MARLEY’S UFC ON ESPN+ 12 DRAFKINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN

This weekend, we’ve got an 11-fight card at Greenville, South Carolina. DraftKings has some adequate competitions for us to win a lot of money from this week. The most important GPP is a $15 buy-in and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of $120k being paid out. They also have a Qualifier only competition for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they will compete for a $50k first location cost and $175k will be spread out between all 100 admissions that qualify. I will attempt to receive my 3rd seat this week to max it if I could. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers, so be careful chasing those overly hard. I will probably stick to the very best GPP this week and then throw a small number of entries at that $30k decoration, and then I will probably take a few shots in the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to receive a good quantity of play into money games.
With that said, let’s get to a few plays I like this week Together with my fade of the week:
Money Game play of this week — Main Event STACK — Renato Moicano and Chan Sung Jung
For me personally, this is a simple stack in cash week. I think we readily have a floor of 100 with Renato Moicano and The Korean Zombie with upside of ~150. It also guarantees us the winner. As I have mentioned several times previously, we do not need 6 wins in cash games, therefore play those kind of games all you’ve got to do is beat half the area. Normally 4 wins or 400+ points is good enough to money in the majority of cash games. Even in case you have a strong lean with this fight I still recommend stacking.
GPP drama of this week — Jairzinho Rozenstruik — $9,000
Rozenstruik has the greatest ITD line on the card in -140 and he could hit 100+ DK points by getting that in round 1. The worry here will be him being on his back in around 1 and scoring zero points through that and then going out and getting a KO in round 2. Or no KO at all. Either of these would take him off the optimal lineup so we want this fight to stay standing and ideally an early KO. I think that’s extremely possible and he’ll be a heart GPP drama of mine . He is not the best money game play though because he can be put on his back and be stuck there and perhaps even lose the battle that way. I am OK with him cash, but I won’t be making a priority like I’m being overweight in GPPs.
Underdog drama of the week — Anderson Dos Santos — $7,900
This betting line is about pickem’ having a small lean towards Dos Santos. But, Ewell is the preferred on DraftKings and is $400 more than ADS. Ewell is also the striker so for him to score highly he’s going to need a finish. His weakness is Anderson Dos Santos’ strength though. Ewell has a hard time staying off his back and if ADS can put him he could possibly submit him. Or he could rack up multiple takedowns for a high decision rating. I enjoy the value we’re getting on him at $7.9k and that I like that he should be looking to grapple in this particular fight. That is the reason why I needed to select him as my dog of this week.
Fade of the week — Syuri Kondo $8,000
There aren’t any real easy fades this week. I really do have a full fade on Kondo however because she looks to be purely a striker and I believe Ashely Yoder’s greatest path to victory is through grappling. If Kondo is not in a striking game for 15-minutes I really don’t see how she scores tremendously unless she gets a finish. I don’t believe she’s KO power, so I think it’s purely the significant strikes and the triumph bonus that we would be relying here. I’d rather have a fighter with more of a chance to complete or who’s more inclined to grapple. That is why Kondo is my fade of this week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and provide my complete DraftKings evaluation, as well as all of my pick predictions, you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are available at that link as well. I am 81-51 for +251.89un (+$25,189) because May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)

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